Second and third-year WHV ballot: your real chances
On 17 September 2026, the Australian government announced that second and third Working Holiday visas will go through a ballot, with 45,000 and 5,000 places. We worked out your real odds from how many people qualified last year.
Updated 25 September 2026 · based on official 2025-26 data.
Key figures
≈ 79%
chance of a second year (45,000 places for 57,036 applicants)
≈ 16%
chance of a third year (5,000 places for 31,534 applicants), 1 in 6
≈ 12.5%
chance of getting both a second and a third year, 1 in 8
0%
change for UK citizens, who are exempt from the ballot
What's changing
- Second and third Working Holiday visas (subclasses 417 and 462) will go through an annual ballot.
- 45,000 places for a second visa and 5,000 for a third, against about 57,000 and 31,000 people who qualified last year.
- The 88 days (second year) and 6 months of specified work (third year) are still required: they get you into the ballot, not a guaranteed visa.
- UK citizens aren't affected: the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement lets them stay 2 or 3 years without specified work.
- The first visa doesn't change.
- Rolling out from late 2026. Some measures still need to pass through parliament.
The maths
Until now, almost everyone who met the requirements got their visa (grant rate above 99%). So the number of visas granted in 2025-26 tells us how many people qualified.
In 2025-26, excluding UK citizens, 57,036 people got a second visa and 31,534 a third. With 45,000 and 5,000 places, 12,036 people would miss out on a second year and 26,534 on a third.
88mates — WHV Australia app88mates.comWhat if demand changes?
The ballot may put some people off, or record numbers of Working Holiday makers may push demand up. Your odds under three scenarios:
| Applicants | Second-year odds | Third-year odds |
|---|---|---|
| 20% fewer applicants | 99% | 20% |
| Same demand as 2025-26 | 79% | 16% |
| 20% more applicants | 66% | 13% |
88mates — WHV Australia app88mates.comHow many places per country?
If the ballot is random and shared by all countries, every applicant has the same odds. Here's how many people qualified last year by country, and how many places they'd get at the same demand.
Second year · 79%
| Country | Qualified 2025-26 | Estimated places |
|---|---|---|
| France | 9,612 | 7,584 |
| Ireland | 5,921 | 4,672 |
| Italy | 5,758 | 4,543 |
| Taiwan | 4,634 | 3,656 |
| South Korea | 3,929 | 3,100 |
| Indonesia | 3,572 | 2,818 |
| Japan | 3,544 | 2,796 |
| China | 2,352 | 1,856 |
| Germany | 1,982 | 1,564 |
| Argentina | 1,690 | 1,333 |
Third year · 16%
| Country | Qualified 2025-26 | Estimated places |
|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 4,837 | 767 |
| Indonesia | 4,093 | 649 |
| France | 3,579 | 567 |
| Taiwan | 3,011 | 477 |
| Italy | 2,823 | 448 |
| Japan | 1,665 | 264 |
| South Korea | 1,459 | 231 |
| Argentina | 1,261 | 200 |
| Thailand | 1,200 | 190 |
| Vietnam | 1,191 | 189 |
88mates — WHV Australia app88mates.comWhat we don't know yet
When the first ballot opens and how long registration lasts.
Whether there'll be a ballot registration fee on top of the AUD 1,000 visa charge.
Whether places will be split by country or drawn in a single ballot.
What happens if you're not drawn: whether you can try again, and when.
Our advice
Keep doing your 88 days: without them, you can't even enter the ballot.
Keep every payslip and proof of your eligible postcodes, that's what will let you register.
If you're aiming for a third year, have a plan B: at 1 in 6, it's no longer automatic.
Follow official news: the detailed rules will be published in the coming months.
Sources and method
Rules: announcement by Home Affairs and Immigration Minister Tony Burke on 17 September 2026, as reported in the press. Detailed rules haven't been published yet.
Applicants: second and third visas granted in 2025-26 to non-UK citizens (subclasses 417 and 462), official BP0017 dataset from the Department of Home Affairs (data.gov.au, at 30 June 2026). These match the "about 57,000 and 31,000" quoted by the Minister.
Odds = places ÷ applicants, assuming a single random draw. This is an 88mates estimate, not an official figure.
Track your 88 and 179 days to the day and keep your proof of work in the 88mates app.