Second and third-year WHV ballot: your real chances
On 17 September 2026, the Australian government announced that second and third Working Holiday visas will go through a ballot, with 45,000 and 5,000 places. We worked out your real odds from how many people qualified last year.
Updated 4 November 2026 · based on official 2025-26 data.
Where does the ballot stand?
Announced, not in force yet
No start date has been published. For now, the current rules still apply.
Last checked: November 4, 2026
November 4, 2026
Our check: Home Affairs still says there are no caps for second or third Work and Holiday visas (subclass 462). The pages for second and third 417 visas and second 462 visas don't mention a ballot.
Home Affairs, country capsNovember 3, 2026
IrishCentral writes that the changes will roll out "over the next 12 months". The dates quoted in the press don't match.
IrishCentralOctober 17, 2026
Law firm Rostron Carlyle writes that the ballot hasn't started and that no date has been published.
Rostron CarlyleSeptember 24, 2026
Time Out reports that, according to Home Affairs, ballots will begin rolling out by the end of 2026. We haven't found this on an official page.
Time OutSeptember 23, 2026
Last update of the Home Affairs news page: processing of about three months, nothing on the second and third-year ballot.
Home Affairs, latest newsSeptember 17, 2026
The Minister for Home Affairs announces a ballot for second and third visas: 45,000 and 5,000 places. The 88 days and 6 months are still required.
Minister's speech
Key figures
≈ 79%
chance of a second year (45,000 places for 57,036 applicants)
≈ 16%
chance of a third year (5,000 places for 31,534 applicants), 1 in 6
≈ 12.5%
chance of getting both a second and a third year, 1 in 8
0
UK citizens in the ballot: they are exempt, but their applications will be processed more slowly
⚠️ These odds assume as many applicants as last year. In practice, the ballot is likely to put some backpackers off doing their 88 days or 6 months without a guaranteed visa: fewer applicants means better odds for you. Read these figures as a cautious baseline, not a forecast.
What's changing
- Second and third Working Holiday visas (subclasses 417 and 462) will go through a ballot, with a capped number of places each year.
- 45,000 places for a second visa and 5,000 for a third, against about 57,000 and 31,000 people who qualified last year.
- The 88 days (second year) and 6 months of specified work (third year) are still required: they get you into the ballot, not a guaranteed visa.
- UK citizens aren't affected: the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement lets them stay 2 or 3 years without specified work. Their applications will be processed more slowly, though.
- The first visa doesn't change.
- No official start date yet: the Department of Home Affairs still has to publish the details.
- It isn't in force yet: the implementing text hasn't been published, and farmers are pushing for changes.
The maths
Until now, almost everyone who met the requirements got their visa (grant rate above 99%). So the number of visas granted in 2025-26 tells us how many people qualified.
In 2025-26, excluding UK citizens, 57,036 people got a second visa and 31,534 a third. With 45,000 and 5,000 places, 12,036 people would miss out on a second year and 26,534 on a third.
88mates — WHV Australia app88mates.comWhat if demand changes?
The ballot may put some people off, or record numbers of Working Holiday makers may push demand up. Your odds under three scenarios:
| Applicants | Second-year odds | Third-year odds |
|---|---|---|
| 20% fewer applicants | 99% | 20% |
| Same demand as 2025-26 | 79% | 16% |
| 20% more applicants | 66% | 13% |
88mates — WHV Australia app88mates.comHow many places per country?
If the ballot is random and shared by all countries, every applicant has the same odds. Here's how many people qualified last year by country, and how many places they'd get at the same demand.
Second year · 79%
| Country | Qualified 2025-26 | Estimated places |
|---|---|---|
| France | 9,612 | 7,584 |
| Ireland | 5,921 | 4,672 |
| Italy | 5,758 | 4,543 |
| Taiwan | 4,634 | 3,656 |
| South Korea | 3,929 | 3,100 |
| Indonesia | 3,572 | 2,818 |
| Japan | 3,544 | 2,796 |
| China | 2,352 | 1,856 |
| Germany | 1,982 | 1,564 |
| Argentina | 1,690 | 1,333 |
Third year · 16%
| Country | Qualified 2025-26 | Estimated places |
|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 4,837 | 767 |
| Indonesia | 4,093 | 649 |
| France | 3,579 | 567 |
| Taiwan | 3,011 | 477 |
| Italy | 2,823 | 448 |
| Japan | 1,665 | 264 |
| South Korea | 1,459 | 231 |
| Argentina | 1,261 | 200 |
| Thailand | 1,200 | 190 |
| Vietnam | 1,191 | 189 |
88mates — WHV Australia app88mates.comWhat we don't know yet
When the first ballot opens, how long registration lasts and how often draws will run.
Whether the measure will survive as announced (number of places, timing) given farmers' opposition.
Whether there'll be a ballot registration fee on top of the AUD 1,000 visa charge.
Whether places will be split by country or drawn in a single ballot.
What happens if you're not drawn: whether you can try again, and when.
Our advice
Keep doing your 88 days: without them, you can't even enter the ballot.
Keep every payslip and proof of your eligible postcodes, that's what will let you register.
If you're aiming for a third year, have a plan B: at 1 in 6, it's no longer automatic.
Follow official news: the detailed rules will be published in the coming months.
Sources and method
Rules: speech by Minister for Home Affairs Tony Burke on 17 September 2026. Detailed rules haven't been published yet.
Applicants: second and third visas granted in 2025-26 to non-UK citizens (subclasses 417 and 462), official BP0017 dataset from the Department of Home Affairs (data.gov.au, at 30 June 2026). These match the "about 57,000 and 31,000" quoted by the Minister.
Odds = places ÷ applicants, assuming a single random draw. This is an 88mates estimate, not an official figure.
- Minister for Home Affairs — National Press Club speech, 17 September 2026
- Home Affairs — Status of country caps
- Home Affairs — BP0017 Working Holiday Maker visas granted (data.gov.au)
- Home Affairs — Working Holiday Maker program, latest news
- Time Out — Australia's new visa rules will require backpackers to enter a ballot
- Beef Central — NFF rejects Albanese's 'right balance' claim on visa changes
Track your 88 and 179 days to the day and keep your proof of work in the 88mates app.